The Global Semiconductor Industry Analysts

The Global Semiconductor Industry Analysts

Semiconductor News

  • Pradeep's Techpoints - 10 May 2022

Global semiconductor industry forecast now +6% for 2022, slowdown depends on timing

  • Global Finance Magzine - 5 Ma 2022

Microchip Merger Collapses 

  • Electrinics Weekly - 17 Feb 2022

Future Hoizons wins SI best 2021 forecast award

  • Semiconductor Intelligence - 17 Feb 2022

Semiconductor Growth Modelling

  • Washington Post - 11 Feb 2022

Russia's drone army contains heaps of Western electronics

  • News Hour Business TRT World - 9 Feb 2022 

Global chip supply disruption bites at Toyota

  • Bits&Chips - 3 Feb 2022

Are the Semicon Industry's bumpy rides really a thing of the past?

  • The Business Times - 3 Feb 2022

When will the semiconductor cycle peak?

  • SemiWiki - 2 Feb 2022

Are we headed for a semiconductor crash?

  • The Economist - 29 Jan 2022

When will the semiconductor cycle peak?

  • EETimes - 20 Jan 2022

Chip market heading towards recession, analyst warns

  • Electronics Weekly - 19 Jan 2022

Three years of double digit gains

  • Electronics Weekly - 19 Jan 2022

Crash coming this year or next

  • Pradeep's Techpoints - 18 Jan 2022

Global semiconductor industry grows 26 percent in 2021, likely to grow 10 percent in 2022: Future Horizons

  • SemiWiki - Daniel Nenni 14 Jan 2022

Podcast EP57: A Perspective of 2021 & 2022 with Malcolm Penn

Dan and Malcolm review their last discussion on 2021 forecasts, which produced aggressive numbers many said were too optimistic. Their predictions turned out to be on the mark. They also explore what will this year look likes and the drivers and risks going forward

  • EETimes 12 Jan 2022

The Roots of Silicon Valley Part 3

  • EETimes 11 Jan 2022

The Roots of Silicon Valley Part 2

  • EETimes 7 Jan 2022

The Roots of Silicon Valley Part 1

  • State Of Chip Shortage In 2021 - Analytics India Magazine – 26 Nov 2021

“Semiconductors are used to power a wide variety of devices, ... it will take some time for the new capacity investments to take fruit,” said Malcolm Penn, CEO of industry researcher Future Horizons.

  • Ode to Intel's 4004 processor: the one that started it all - TechRadar – 24 Nov 2021

Malcolm Penn, CEO of UK semiconductor analyst firm Future Horizons, told TechRadar which problems the 4004 overcame.

  • Silicon Catalyst Fall Advisor Event - 20 Oct 2021

No Man (or Start-Up) is an Island - watch here

  • EETimes Weekend Edition – 16 Oct 2021

Don't Be Afraid Of Making Mistakes

  • News Bulletin TRT World - 13 Oct 2021

Apple to cut iPhone 13 production due to chip shortage

  • SemiWiki - Daniel Nenni - 1 Oct 2021

Podcast EP40: The Semiconductor Supply Chain and the Real Cause of Semiconductor Shortages

Dan and Mike are joined by Malcolm Penn, 50-year semiconductor industry veteran and founder and CEO of Future Horizons. Dan and Mike explore the evolution of the semiconductor supply chain, how we got to the current state of shortages and... Read More

  • eeNewsEurope - 17 Sept 2021

High stakes in the chip shortage

  • Electronics Weekly - 15 Sept 2021

Positive update for the semiconductor industry

  • Pradeep's Tech Points - 14 Sept 2021

Global semiconductor industry to grow 24.5 percent in 2021

  • Mannerisms - Electronics Weekly - 7 Sept 2021

Wise Words

  • CGTN Europe, 4 Sept 2021 - The Agenda with Stephen Cole, Malcolm Penn CEO 

Chip Supply Chain Issues, watch Malcolm's portion here

Watch Whole Programme here

  • eeNewsEurope - 7 June 2021 - Nick Flaherty

Why is the Chip Shortage Getting Worse?

  • The Economist -22 May 2021

Global Chip Shortage Here For Some Time

  • Money Talks Interview TRT World - 13 April 2021

US President Biden proposes $50B semiconductor investment

  • Money Talks Interview TRT World - 30 March 2021

Foxconn warns of revenue slump as chip shortage worsens

  • Money Talks Interview TRT World - 10 March 2021

EU Launches Plan To Boost Semiconductor Manufacturing

  • South China Morning Post - 13 March 2021 - Che Pan

US and China semiconductor working group teo sides of the same coin

  • eeNews Europe - 5 February 2021 - Nick Flaherty

Electronics eats the car industry

Several trends have come together to highlight a fundamental shift in the global car industry that is accelerating...

  • Bits&Chips - 3 February 2021 - Paul Van Gerven

Report: NXP is on Samsung's radar

Almost twenty European countries want a 2nm fab built in Europe. Impossible, you say? Future Horizons analyst Malcolm Penn doesn't...

  • Bits&Chips - 14 Jan - Paul Van Gerven

ASML and ASMI stand to gain from huge TSMC capex boost

Future Horizons analyst Malcolm Penn doesn't… Bits&Chips strengthens the high tech ecosystem in the Netherlands and Belgium and makes it...

  • Money Talks Interview TRT World - 26th January 2021

The Chips are Down

  • Electronics Weekly - 22 January 2021 - David Manners

ASP's on the up

An underinvestment in chip industry capex over the past two years has also contributed to the shortage. “Fab capacity was sold out in January,” Malcolm...

  • eeNews Europe - 1 February 2021 - Nick Flaherty

Global chip sales bounce back

This has led to a growth of 6.5 percent over the year to $439.0bn. Malcolm Penn at Future Horizons is predicting 18 percent growth for 2021. V-SHAPED...

  • eeNews Europe - 26 January 2021 - Nick Flaherty

Can hydrogen be cheaper than oil?

... fuel cell technology will be a key capacity for electric vehicles in the future says Malcolm Penn of analyst Future Horizons as well as electric aircraft

  • Fortune - 4 February 2021 - David Meyer

Nvidia says its $40 billion Arm takeover is 'proceeding as planned' despite antitrust regulator pile-onwym-1612991896923

According to veteran semiconductor industry analyst Malcolm Penn, founder of the British research house Future Horizons, there is every reason to...

  • Electronics Weekly - 12 January 2021 - David Manners

A Shot in the Foot

“Therein lies the fallacy of 'Just In Time,” points out Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, “it's easy to shut off suppliers when demand falls but...

  • Bits&Chips - 3 February 2021

Almost twenty European countries want a 2nm fab built in Europe. Impossible, you say? Future Horizons analyst Malcolm Penn doesn't think so.

  • Electronic Specifier – 19 January 2021 – Mick Elliott

Semiconductor market to grow 18 percent in 2021

The global semiconductor market will grow 18% to $520.6 billion in 2021, says Malcolm Penn CEO of Future Horizons.
This performance builds on an against the odds 7.5% growth in 2020. It is one the few times that the semiconductor industry has grown against the backdrop of a global economic downturn.

  • eeNewsanalog - January 20, 2021 - Peter Clarke

V shaped pandemic sets up chip shortages rising prices in 2021

A rebound in global gross domestic product and sold-out IC manufacturing capacity will drive up chip prices and kick-start the next semiconductor business cycle in 2021, according to Malcom Penn, founder and CEO of market analysis firm Future Horizons.

  • Mannerisms - David Manners - 21 January 2021

Shake Up Coming For Auto Industry

The traditional car industry business model is going to be turned on its head by Foxconn and Apple, Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, told IFS2021 earlier this week.
“Apple and Foxconn will change the automotive world,” said Penn, “the  auto industry is re-structuring – it’s easier for Apple and Tesla to get into EVs than it is for the car industry to get into EVs.”
Penn pointed to the huge 260mm2 AI processors which Tesla designed in-house for its EV line. “The car-makers don’t do that,” said Penn.
Foxconn unveiled its Open Platform for EVs last year and expects the first cars built on it to be on the road in 2022. Foxconn dubs it ‘the Android of the EV industry’ and is targeting a 10% share of the global EV market for it by 2027. “The Apple car will almost certainly be built by Foxconn,” said Penn.
Foxconn will be making its platform available to any EV maker which could have the effect of changing the traditional business model of the car industry from a vertical model where companies make everything in a car to the horizontal model of the tech industry which buys best-in-class parts from multiple suppliers.

2021 IC industry to grow 18%

The chip industry will grow 18% this year to reach a market size of $520.6 billion, forecast Malcolm Penn (pictured) CEO of Future Horizons, at IFS 2021 yesterday.
Three out of the four leading market indicators: demand, capacity and prices are all pointing to a big growth year. The only exception being the general economy and that depends on overcoming the pandemic.
“Fab capacity was sold out in January,” marvelled Penn, “heaven help us when we get to the third quarter. Everything is straining at the bit. We’re living with the results of underinvestment in capex.”
For Q1, Penn sees growth of 1.4%, for Q2 – 3.5%, for Q3 – 9.2% and for Q4 – -1%.
He has no sympathy for the auto makers begging for chips while car factories shut down. “The answer is that it is of your own making,” Penn told the auto industry, “you shut the industry down. It’ll take six months to turn it back on again.”
With ASPs already trending higher the industry is, said Penn, entering on a super-cycle.

  • Tech Design Forum - Luke Collins - 20 Jan 2021

Strong growth forecast for IC industry on tight capacity, pent-up demand

  • Pradeep's Techpoints - 20 Jan 2021

Global semiconductor market to grow 18 percent in 2021: Malcolm Penn

  • Ijiwei News - 16 Dec 2020

  • Outlook for 2021 - 6 Dec 2020

FH Industry outlook

  • Electronics Weekly – David Manners – 16 Sep 2020

  • Electronic Specifier – Mick Elliott – 16 Sep 2020

  • eeNews – Peter Clarke – 15 Sep 2020

  • Pradeep’s Techpoints – Pradeep Chakraborty – 15 Sep 2020

Pradeep’s Techpoints – 10 Jul 2020

Future Horizon’s view throughout this crisis was that 2020 growth was never going to be as bad and negative, as all the other pundits were saying!  Even the SIA is now coming round to this way of thinking with its latest (July 9) forecast of +3.3% growth.  The ‘industry consensus’ of -5% growth Q2 vs. Q1 is, as expected, is going to prove wildly pessimistic! Read on!

Pradeep’s Techpoints – 13 Jun 2020 

I’ve often told several friends, my wife, and son, that without semiconductors, we are absolutely nothing, or even, dead! Why, my son even repeated this very line, during his induction in college, which actually left everyone present, absolutely speechless! Now, Malcolm Penn, founder and CEO, Future Horizons, UK, has posted a brilliant piece on Facebook. I am repasting it here, with Malcolm’s permission. Read on!


“IoT is not a stand-alone chip market but a platform, Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, told IFS 2017 in London this week.”

The semiconductor industry will grow by 11% this year, Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, told IFS 2017 in London this week.Unit demand growth is, however, trending below the 30 year average of 10%, said Penn.In 2013, the unit growth was 9.5%, in 2014 it was 8.3%, in 2015 it was 5.1%, and in 2016 it was 6%.


IFS 2017 in London this week looked at current technology issues on 450mm, EUV, scaling, 3D NAND and FD-SOI “It looks like 300mm is the end of the process road,” said Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, adding, “then again, in this industry never say never.”


Malcolm Penn, the founder and CEO of Future Horizons Ltd. and usually one of the most bullish of chip market forecasters, thinks 2017 could be a third year of decline for the global semiconductor industry.Penn told attendees at his autumn industry forecast seminar that 2016 was already headed towards a 1 percent decline and said political and economic uncertainty – born of incompetence – continues to dull business confidence and recovery.

When, and it is a when rather than an if, autonomous driving cars really begin to tick, it’s going to turn the whole motoring industry upside down.That’s the gist of a presentation made by semiconductor analyst Malcolm Penn, CEO and chairman of UK firm Future Horizons.There are still some significant road blocks on the autonomous car road map, Penn warned. But eventually they’ll be circumvented.


Penn predicts 4% semi growth

The semiconductor industry will grow 4% this year said Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons at IFS2016 in London this morning.Penn sees Q1 at minus 1.5%, Q2 at plus 1.5%, Q3 at plus 5.8% and Q4 at minus 1%. The 2016 market will end up at $349.345 billion.

Cumputer World UK

This week, Intel and ARM announced that they would be entering a partnership whereby for the first time in years, ARM designs will be manufactured by Intel.

The chips will be for a low-risk client, South Korea’s LG, and it signals a historic rejoining between ARM and Intel since they worked together many, many moons ago. Much fanfare was made following the announcement, but there are a few reasons to believe it’s a shrewd move by Intel

Electronics Weekly

The semiconductor industry will grow 4% this year said Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons at IFS2016 in London this morning.Penn sees Q1 at minus 1.5%, Q2 at plus 1.5%, Q3 at plus 5.8% and Q4 at minus 1%.The 2016 market will end up at $349.345 billion.


In 2014, more than half the world’s semiconductor sales were in China, but the country accounts for less than a third of production. That is set to change.

In the 15 years since China as a nation started to talk about becoming a leading producer of semiconductors, the cost of establishing a competitive manufacturing base in the sector has more than quadrupled


With the industry running cool on 450mm, there might be a case for resurrecting a strategy from the 70s and going for an intermediate wafer size, Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, suggested at the IFS 2015 meeting in London yesterday. “A potential win-win might be to steal a trick from history to see if 300mm wafers can’t be stretched to still fit existing tooling but gain a potentially ‘free’ area advantage,” suggested Penn, “just as we so successfully did stretching two inch wafers to two and a quarter inches in the early 1970s. I was there when we did this at ITT Semiconductors and boy was it simple and did it make a difference!


Unusually for a Future Horizons forecast, today’s was gloomy. Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons told IFS 2015 in London this morning that he expected 2% semiconductor market growth this year and a flat 2016. This is what we said in January – 8.5% growth for a $364 billion market,” said Penn. What he’s saying now is that the best we can hope for is 2% growth for a $343 billion market and that “growth could even be down at 1% if Q3 is low, said Penn.”


Fourteen semiconductor pilot lines have been set up under the €6.6bn Key Enabling Technologies (KET) programme, Mike Bryant, CTO of Future Horizons, told IFS 2015 in London, on Tuesday. The pilot line project has a budget of €1.787bn, of which the EC funds €267m and local public authorities €265m


It is time to prepare for one of the strongest and longest upswings in the semiconductor industry’s history, it was stated at the Future Horizons’ IFS 2015 forecast meeting in London this morning. “Every single duck is lined up for the industry to go into a prolonged market upturn,” said Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons.  The industry grew at 9.9% last year and ASPs have been rising for seven consecutive quarters and there have been twelve successive quarters of unit demand growth, said Penn.“People don’t believe it,” said Penn, “it doesn’t fit with what they want to believe.”


At IFS2015 in London last week, Future Horizons CEO Malcolm Penn revealed OSS and the wide-ranging implications it has for the adoption of IoT.  OSS stands for ‘Odd Sock Syndrome’ or, as the Yanks like to call it ‘Orphan Sock Syndrome’.  BlackSocks Inc in the USA sells socks with an RFID IC embedded in them to match them up.


Private equity funds, which bought 80.1 percent of NXP Semiconductors in the fall of 2006, are selling off their remaining NXP shares, terminating their control over the Dutch semiconductor company.

The move marks the end of an era when the private fund consortium, comprising Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) and Bain Capital Partners, took over the then troubled NXP, cut the company to its bare bones, and restored profitability


Sales of semiconductors are predicted to grow by 8% in 2014, according to Malcolm Penn, chairman of industry analyst Future Horizons, who added the upside could see sales growing by 14% compared to those of 2013. He added that 2015 could see sales grow by a further 18%.  Making his predictions at the International Forecast Seminar 2014, Penn said he is concerned about the level of investment in capital equipment and by the growing gulf between the 'haves' and 'have nots' of the semiconductor world.


Industry watcher Malcolm Penn gave an interesting interpretation at his IFS 2014 event of why Intel has mothballed Fab 42. The company, he believes, has been too successful in scaling its FinFET technology.Yields from its FinFET process have been much better than expected," he suggested. "This means Intel will only need two 14nm fabs, rather than the three it had planned for. It's a better position to be in than not having enough capacity." A further factor has been the decline in demand for pc processors.

Company confidence is growing in the macro economy, said Malcolm Penn, CEO of  Future Horizons at the company’s forecast meeting in London this morning, as the IMF prepares to increase it’s GDP forecast and financial institutions are upping their expectations.The IMF says that, in the next three weeks, it will raise its current 3.6% forecast for world GDP. Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse are forecasting 3.7% world GDP growth this year.UK GDP is forecast to grow 2.4% this year. The US economy grew at over 4% between July and September, says the US Department of Commerce.

Forecasts for the size of the semiconductor market in 2014 vary widely from the $390 billion forecast by Future Horizons back last October, to $287.5 billion forecast last month by VLSI Research. Last week Mike Cowan came up with a $318 billion forecast which parallels last month’s SIA/WSTS forecast of $316 billion.

  • >Future Horizons Predicts Sharp Chip Market Rebound


Malcolm Penn, founder and CEO of the Future Horizons consultancy, sees a sharp rebound coming in the market for semiconductor chips, despite the fact that global economy is still in "low-confidence mode."  Speaking at the International Electronics Forum held in Dublin last week, Penn stuck to his previous prediction that the global chip market would increase by 6.9 percent in 2013 to $312 billion; and added that it would than increase by 25 percent in 2014 to about $390 billion.

Malcolm Penn, CEO of chip analyst Future Horizons, gave his annual rundown on the semiconductor market at the IEF2013 in Dublin, and he had some warnings of what the industry should expect.The financial crisis is clearly not over: “We’ve got three more years to go through, but still the [semiconductor] industry was not that bad".

Predicting the Semiconductor Future

Electronic engineering Journal

How do you know what is going to happen to you and your business in the future? In earlier times, you might have gone to a temple to have a goat or a chicken sacrificed and had the entrails examined. Or you might have made a pilgrimage to an oracle, like that at Delphi. In either case, the answers were never simple and required interpretation by priests, who charged for the privilege. Later you might have consulted a gypsy with a crystal ball, or an astrologer who interpreted the stars, or a practitioner of Tarot card reading.

But what are the signs that they interpret? And how do they build these spread sheets? Malcolm Penn, the MD of Future Horizons, a London-based analysis company, actually tells you how he comes up with the forecasts.

% Semi Growth This Year And Double Digit Next Year, Says Penn


A stonking Q2 will see the semiconductor industry grow nearly 7% this year, Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, told IFS2013 in London this morning.

Q2 grew 8.8% said Penn and Q3 is expected to grow 8.5%.

April grew 18% on March in IC unit sales terms. “One more 18% growth month will test the supply chain to the limit,” said Penn. Inventory is at rock bottom.


Europe has got its ‘man on the moon’ vision statement from the EC courtesy of vice president Neelie Kroes, says Malcolm Penn, CEO of Europe’s leading semiconductor analysts, Future Horizons.

Kroes said she wants to see European semiconductor producers regain a 20% world market share – out-producing the American suppliers.


The semiconductor industry is becoming single-sourced as companies find it economically impossible to use multiple fabs for the same chip design, Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, tells SEMI's ISS 2013 meeting in Stresa on Lake Maggiore today..

"Portability is no longer possible - even for the CPA - there is no chance at the mask or even at the OASIS level," says Penn, "the pre-DFM file shares the nearest commonality but that falls down at the SRAM level."

"Many ARM hard cores are specially tuned to each foundry," adds Penn, "DFM is already finely tuned and foundry dependent. If you still think SOCs are not single-sourced, ask Apple."


Future Horizon’s forecast meeting for the first half of 2013 made it clear how electronics and the semiconductor industry in particular is facing big problems – and some of them are being exacerbated by the often adversarial rather than cooperative nature of the business. “I believe there are at least ten or twelve major issues that the semiconductor industry will have to address over the next decade and the current business model that the industry has will not solve them,” said Malcolm Penn, president and CEO of Future Horizons as he described the challenges facing an industry buffeted not just by economic headwinds but the accumulated pain of dealing with the end of classic Moore’s Law scaling.


The semiconductor market will grow 7.9% this year, Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, told IFS2013 in London this morning.  However Penn added: "Last year I forecast 8% growth, and I said that was a safe bet and it turned out to be minus 2.4%."  World events - the US fiscal mess, the Eurozone debt mess, the 'damp squibs' of Windows 8 and iPhone 5 all blighted the industry in 2012, said Penn  For 2013, Penn expects a flat Q1, 2% growth in Q2, 8% growth in Q3 and a 2.1% decline in Q4.

New Electronics

The semiconductor industry has to address a number of fundamental issues in the near future, claims Malcolm Penn, pictured, chairman of market watcher Future Horizons. "The reason is the current model won't solve the problems it is facing," he said.  Speaking at Future Horizon's 2013 Industry Forecast Seminar, Penn pointed to issues such as the 450mm transition, lithography and the rise of the foundry sector – and TSMC in particular.

TSMC: 18 Inch Wafer Production To Start in 2018

TSMC has announced that it will begin volume production of chips using 18 inch (450mm) wafers in 2018.

J.K. Wang, vice president for operations at the mega foundry, said at a conference held by industry body SEMI in Taipei that the company is expecting to complete specification settings for 18 inch wafers in 2014 or 2015, with a view to setting up pilot lines in 2016 or 2017, according to The Taipei Times.

Assuming that each step goes to plan, Wang said that TSMC expects to then begin volume production in 2018, which would also coincide with plans to move to 10 nm process production with FinFET transistors at the same time

GlobalFoundries has overtaken United Microelectronics Corp (UMC) as the second biggest contract chip maker for the second quarter of 2012, reports IC Insights.

GloFo managed increase sales by 18 percent, pushing the company past UMC to become the second biggest foundry in the world. It is also ranked as the 16th largest semiconductor supplier, worldwide, and the analyst house believes it may climb over Fujitsu for total 2012 sales to reach 15th.


A study commissioned by the European Commission on the impact of 450mm manufacturing concludes that not having a 450mm production infrastructure in Europe will “threaten the competitiveness of the current European SC manufacturing base, including technology development and device design.”  The study prepared in partnership with industry analysis firm, Future Horizons, recommends the creation of a master plan that includes “both a strong industrial commitment and a coordinated position …to leverage the required funding, avoid duplication and concentrate the funding where needed.”


A cheerful forecast for the semiconductor market comes from Semico who expect 6-8% growth for the year, making it the most optimisitic of the major forecasters.

IDC is forecasting 4.6%; IHS expects 4.3%; while Gartner and Future Horizons plump for 4% and IC Insights goes for 3%.

The SIA is forecasting a flat year which, according to Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, is "totally and absolutely wrong, it's not going to be less than 4%."

Intel’s prospective expansion at its Leixlip site could be paving the way for a move to 450mm production.

Intel is about to get the nod for expansion to its Kildare plant soon, though intended 14nm production is only said to be going ahead at 300mm.

Future Horizons analyst Mike Bryant says that it is likely that Ireland will see the creation of Intel’s third 450mm, though it is unclear when Intel will begin moving to the advanced production method

IHS has constructed a report that shines light on Apple in a remarkably favourable way: it claims that Apple is solidifying its hegemony over the chip market, that it is a crucial company to the industry in the long term. Apple will "dramatically" outperform Samsung, soon, allowing it to be the world's top OEM semiconductor buyer. But, according to a top chip analyst, this is hokum.


Future Horizons is forecasting four percent growth for the semiconductor industry during 2012, revising its predictions down due to ongoing economic malaise.

At the Future Horizon Summit 2012 semi industry analyst Malcolm Penn indicated the likely growth in terms of shipments for the remainder of the year.

The total growth figure is estimated to be approximately four percent, which is a reduction on the expectation of around eight percent highlighted at the start of the year


Anti-IMEC sentiment across Europe has been putting the continent's role in the transition of chip production to 450-mm diameter wafers at risk, according to Mike Bryant, analyst with Future Horizons Ltd. (Sevenoaks, England).

Already Europe's role is somewhat limited with inward investors Intel and GlobalFoundries as the only companies likely to make chips on 450-mm wafers in Europe, But ASML Holding NV (Veldhoven, The Netherlands) has become almost a monopoly supplier of lithography equipment for leading-edge production nodes and stands to benefit from the transition.

  • RainMaker12 Presentation - YouTube

Watch Malcolm's 'Semiconductor Devices...More Than Just a Component'

Malcolm Penn carried out numerous interviews to give his expert opinion on how the 2011 Japanese earthquake will affect the global electronics industry. 

  • Bloomberg TV Interview ~ 17th March 2011
Malcolm Penn's Live Interview With Bloomberg TV

Future Horizons' Chairman & CEO Malcolm Penn took part in a live interview on Bloomberg TV show "The Last Word" with Andrea Catherwood.  Hear Malcolm's analysis of the semiconductor industry following the Japanese earthquake.  

  • BBC Breakfast News and BBC World Business Report Interviews ~ 18th March 2011

Malcolm will again be giving his opinions and forecast as to how the Japanese earthquake will affect the semiconductor industry.

Client Comments

As usual Malcolm's insights from all three interviews are very interesting and I would say bang on the button.  I can see the industry gradually waking up to new shortages in all sorts of unexpected areas.

Certainly silicon wafers, especially 300mm will be extremely tight for quite a while. 

Paul Dorman, Vice President Sales, SUMCO Europe Sales plc

Click here for more client comments on the Bloomberg Interview

If GlobalFoundries expands again in New York state beyond the $4.6 billion computer chip factory it has in Malta, it might do so by buying IBM's semiconductor business, which includes Big Blue's chip fab in East Fishkill.

Speculation has been swirling for several years as the two companies have forged one of the closest alliances in the industry, dating to the creation of GlobalFoundries in 2009. 


Malcolm Penn's substantial report considering whether Europe should dip its toes into the 450mm pond has now been published.

His conclusion is that the EC should stump up some $3billion to seed the construction of a European shared 450mm fab – and hence spawn industry collaboration 


A study commissioned by the European Commission has looked into the potential role of European authorities in encouraging the construction of a 450-mm wafer fab on the old continent.

The report, prepared by Future Horizons and Decision SA, tried to identify activities required to support research and innovation in semiconductor production in Europe. It found that semiconductor output in Europe could decline unless something is done to support development.


LONDON – A report prepared for the European Commission just published discusses the potential role of European authorities in encouraging the creation of both a pilot 450-mm wafer fab to support Europe's chip equipment companies and a volume manufacturing 450-mm plant for a wide variety of More-than-Moore processes.

The report, entitled Benefits and measures to set up 450 mm semiconductor prototyping and to keep semiconductor manufacturing in Europe. The role of public authorities and programmes has been prepared between January 2011 and February 2012 by the consultancies Future Horizons Ltd. (Sevenoaks, England) and Decision SA (Paris, France).


Executives and specialists from the electronics components market will meet in Milan on May 31 at the International Distribution of Electronics Association (IDEA) executive conference.

The main talking point will how can the supply chain maximise business opportuntities as governments around the world desperately seek to move the western economies from austerity to growth.

The conference starts with a review of the global economy and particularly the European economy presented by Paolo Guida, Head of Retail and SME Research at BancaIntesa Sanpaolo.

  • >The Prime Minister Of Armenia Will Be Speaking At This Years International Electronics Forum Organised By Future Horizons.


2012 is the 21st anniversary of Armenia’s secession from the Soviet Union and also the 21st anniversary of the Future Horizons IEF.

The forum is being held at the Marriott Hotel in Armenia’s capital, Yerevan.

 “ The forum will serve to provide guidance and discussion to really drive the foundry and semiconductor market progress as it continues its momentum out of this economic downturn,” says Future Horizons’ CEO malcolm Penn, “we have also ensured we are coinciding with the DigiTech Expo (5-7 October 2012) allowing us to offer delegates a pre- and post-forum Armenia experience.” 


LONDON – The International Electronics Forum is off to Yerevan, the capital of Armenia for its 21 st annual meeting. The meeting of C-level executives is set to take place at Yerevan Marriott Hotel from Oct. 3 to 5, 2012.

The forum is organized by Future Horizons Ltd. (Sevenoaks, England) and covers the electronics value chain from R&D to end markets and service providers.


The massive earthquake and tsunami that tore through Japan on 11 March and rippled throughout the Pacific region could have significant short-term effects on the semiconductor industry, according to analysts.

Japan and Taiwan make up a huge amount of the global semiconductor manufacturing, and even the smallest amount of downtime could have a large impact on chip supply and prices, the analysts said in various reports.

For a company that is supposedly under attack - with the PC market moving away from traditional desktops and towards tablets and smartphones - Intel is performing rather well.

In fact, the latest yearly semiconductor figures released by IHS show that the Santa Clara firm increased its lead in the market with a 20.6 percent revenue jump, accounting for its highest share in over ten years.

Last year, Chipzilla increased its overall semi market revenue share to 15.6 percent, an increase of 2.5 percent from 13.1 percent in 2010.  This is even more than the 14.9 percent market revenue share way back in 2001 when Ultrabooks were just a twinkle in Intel’s eye.

KEEPING EUROPE competitive was the recurring theme at a recent conference for the semiconductor industry in Munich, with a succession of speakers highlighting how the axis of the old industrial world continues to shift.

The decline of European manufacturing may be a familiar story, but new chapters are being written all the time and it’s not certain if there will be a happy ending

Malcolm Penn, a semiconductor industry analyst, talked about getting used to the new world order.


Industry experts highlighted the need for the channel to adapt to the growth of cloud computing, during the launch of channel-dedicated title ChannelBiz.

NetMediaEurope CEO Dominique Busso launched the new site in the Soho Hotel in the centre of London this morning to a crowd of industry figures, journalists and PRs.

The channel must adapt. At the event Mike Magee, Editor in Chief of ChannelBiz, and editor of TechEye. highlighted the need for the channel to modernise itself in order to adapt to major changes.


The first chips manufactured on 450mm wafers will begin to roll out from a handful of fabs within the next few years.

The move, being made by companies like Intel and TSMC, is the next step in the industry's pursuit of Moore's Law. In following Moore's prediction that the number of transistors on a given area of silicon would double every 18 months, these companies are subscribing to a school of thought which has become known as 'More Moore'.

THE TRANSITION to next-generation semiconductor manufacturing will be a tipping point for Europe, according to a new study by the EU commission, which is calling for a collective EU strategy to ensure 450mm silicon wafer fabrication comes to the continent.

Willy Van Puymbroek, head of the nano electronic unit in the European Commission, told a trade conference in Munich that national strategies won’t work because of the high costs involved in setting up a 450mm facility. Analyst Malcolm Penn, from Future Horizons, warned that Europe has to build on its leadership of materials and equipment to make sure it’s in the race. “If Europe doesn’t embrace 450mm, then it’s history,” he said.

Intel is to stop supplying sales data to the WSTS.  Last year AMD left the WSTS.

With Intel leaving WSTS, and other companies likely to follow, then, without reliable sales statistics, estimates of semiconductor market size and estimates of product markets will be guesswork.

 “It will be pure conjecture,” says Malcolm Penn, CEO of analysts Future Horizons, “everything will be built on guesswork.


Intel confirmed to ZDNet UK on Thursday that "there have been other agreements" besides its 22nm fabbing relationships with Tabula and Achronix Semiconductor. However, it declined to give more details.

Intel plays the musical chairs game, the IT industry celebrates lots of record quarters, only AMD disappoints. Things are uncertain around Globalfoundries and numerous Bryants draw attention.

It seems a bit rich for a company proposing to spend $12.5 billion on capex this year to be asking other companies, and government institutions, for help in developing a technology which will, mostly, benefit that one company.

The company which, more than anyone else, has pushed for 450mm, is Intel, and Intel recently announced a 2012 capex budget of $12.5 billion.

That's about half the estimated cost of the 450mm transition.

The EU is thinking of backing 450mm development, and Future Horizons has done a report for the EU on whether this is a worthwhile thing to do.

Doom and gloom may be prevailing through much of the world, but there is hope that the semiconductor industry could see a good bounce back this year, according to Future Horizons CEO Malcolm Penn.At IFS 2012, a peer into what the semi industry has to offer, Penn’s energetic outlook defied industry pessimism.

It may be true that the world has been through another traumatic upheaval, but there is plenty of scope for the chip industry to rebound in a big way this year, with the question more ‘when’ rather than ‘if’, he reckons.


Mike Bryant, technology analyst with Future Horizons Ltd. has said that foundry Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. is in trouble with its 28-nm manufacturing process technologies, which are not yet yielding well. Bryant referenced un-named contacts made with multiple companies waiting for designs to be produced by TSMC on 28-nm processes.

Malcolm Penn, founder and chief analyst with semiconductor market analysis firm Future Horizons Ltd., has predicted that the global chip market will rise on an annual basis by 8 percent to $323.2 billion in 2012. Penn said that after a flat first quarter he expected the chip market to bounce back in the second half of the year.

TSMC CEO Morris Chang reckons the semiconductor industry will grow 2% this year.

In a flat year for the overall industry last year, the foundry industry grew 4% said Chang.

In 2012, he added, foundry business will grow more than the overall industry and TSMC will grow more than the foundry industry.

American semiconductor companies are exporting their brains, says the author of the Innovators Dilemma, Harvard Business School professor Clayton Christensen.

There’s only one exception – Intel, says Christensen.

Outsourcing fab is one of the ways US chip-makers are handing over a vital technological competitive diffe