In The Press
Semiconductor Survivor Call for Entries
These are difficult times for the semiconductor industry. Many would say the most difficult ever. Hopefully, we are nearing the end of the recession and prosperity will quickly return.
Are you a survivor? We want to know. In the spirit of CBS’s “Survivor” reality game show, we have elected to forego our usual award program this year and will instead be awarding “Semiconductor Survivor” awards. Winners will be announced at Semicon West in July. It’s not necessary for winners to be present to win, but those that are exhibiting at the show will be given a special immunity necklace.
Here are the rules:….
Mobile Phone Production To Resume Growth In 2010, Says Analyst
The global economic recession has caused mobile phone unit production to fall for the first time since 2001, according to market analysis firm Future Horizons (Sevenoaks, England). The resultant mobile phone slowdown is continuing into 2009 but is forecast to recover in 2010
Future Horizons Expects Recovery in Mobile Phone Unit Production
This financial recession has caused the first fall in mobile phone unit production since 2001 according to Future Horizons in the Semiconductor Application Market Report. The resultant mobile phone slowdown is continuing into 2009 but is forecast to recover in 2010. Worldwide mobile phone production consists of emerging markets in countries like China, Africa and Latin America, and the replacement market in saturated regions including Western Europe and Japan
Semiconductor meet: IEF 2009 in Geneva from Sept. 30-Oct. 2
Folks, in case you didn't know! Future Horizons has moved this year's International Electronics Forum (IEF 2009) in Geneva, Switzerland, to Wednesday 30 September-Friday 2 October 2009.
The previous edition in Dubai was a grand success. However, since September 2008, given the wobble happening within the global semiconductor industry, Future Horizons decided to first move out the IEF 2009 event from India to Geneva, Switzerland, and later, revised the days from May to Sep-Oct. 2009. In fact, it ran a poll among prospective participants to choose this date.
Time To Act
Quarterly Analyst Column
IMEC Confirms SEMI Europe’s Call For Action
Today, on a live broadcast on BBC World News Business Report, Luc Van den Hove, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at IMEC confirmed SEMI Europe’s position that actions are required to keep Europe’s semiconductor industry competitive.
Future Horizons Postpones Its Annual IEF
In another sign of the problems facing the semiconductor industry, Future Horizons (Sevenoaks, England) has had to postpone its annual International Electronics Forum (IEF) that was scheduled to take place next month in Geneva, Switzerland
MEMC Confirms 50% Fall In Sales For First Quarter
Although not releasing full financial results until April 23rd MEMC has reported that its first quarter revenues will be approximately US$214 million, a 50% decline from the previous quarter. The company had guided a 50% fall at lasts quarter’s conference call. However, gross margins are expected to be approximately 9% of sales, compared to the company's previous outlook of declining to the 20% range
Wafer Fab Capacity Showed A Surprise Decrease In Q4 2008,” Comments Future Horizons’ Malcolm Penn
Overall MOS wafer fab capacity showed a surprise decrease of 1.7 percent in Q4-08 versus Q3-08, from 2,145k 200mm equivalent wafer starts per week to 2,108k, in Future Horizons’ March report. The decreases were highest in 200mm and below wafer sizes and 150nm and tighter feature sizes. The decrease compares with the 1.3 percent increase experienced this time last year and fundamentally adds to the ongoing slowdown in capital expenditure that began mid-2007. “Given the continuing slowdown in 2009 cap ex, low levels of capacity expansion - possibly further declines - will continue throughout 2009,” said Malcolm Penn, Chairman and CEO of Future Horizons.
ASP Recovery Clouded By Doom And Gloom?
A structural pent-up period of supply side restrictions possibly starting as early as later this year will possibly push up IC device ASPs
LONDON, UK. January's IC sales saw IC ASPs increase by 4.4 percent versus January 2008 and 3.9 percent on December 2008, according to the March report from Future Horizons.
Malcolm Penn, Chairman and CEO of Future Horizons, said: "This is exceptional given that ASPs in the first month of any quarter are always lower than the third month of the previous quarter, the 'making the quarterly number phenomenon."
Fear For Semiconductor Shortage
Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons fear capacity shortages on the semiconductor market.
Components Since mid 2007, the semiconductor industry's investment in new equipment has been very limited. According to Malcolm Penn there is now a reduction seen in the semiconductor industry's capacity in the fabs for MOS components. The world's total production capacity fell from third to fourth quarter 2008 by 1.7 percent, compared with 1.3 percent increase over the corresponding period in 2007. The decrease was greatest for production on 200 mm wafers and smaller sizes. The decrease is believed to continue.
SEMI Sponsors Penn To Pitch Chip Industry To The European Union
Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), the industry body that represents chipmaking equipment makers and materials suppliers, has arranged for Malcolm Penn, chairman and CEO of analysis firm Future Horizons Ltd. (Sevenoaks, England), to give a seminar on the role of the silicon chip to the European Commission in Brussels on April 23.
Future Horizons turns 20!
Future Horizons celebrated its 20th birthday on April 1. Founded by Malcolm Penn on April 1, 1989, it is the world's leading independent semiconductor analysts.
"When we set up shop 20 years ago our Worldwide HQ was an attic office in Fleet Street, London, home to Cochrane Communications, the PR agency for Eaton, Fairchild Semiconductors, SEMI and Teradyne," said Malcolm Penn, Chairman, founder and CEO of Future Horizons. "Future Horizons was founded on strong semiconductor start up principles; spinning out from a market leader that was becoming complacent (Dataquest) and exploiting a market opportunity ignored by the incumbents; namely the re-birth of a powerful European chip industry led and epitomised by Pasquale Pistorio, then CEO of STMicroelectronics."
Keep your eye on semiconductor ASPs, says Future Horizon
Few people would be surprised that January IC sales were not particularly strong, but a look at the data shows that ASPs were actually up 4.4% on year, according to Future Horizons. And while the market research firm does not believe the market will rebound in the first half of this year, it believes that when the market does show an upturn, the trend of increasing ASPs will not go away.
Looking at the data, January sales were down 31.6% in value (34.5% in units) from the same time last year, said Future Horizons. January sales were also down on a weekly run-rate basis, 6.6% in value (10.1% in units) from December 2008. In both cases the unit declines were steeper than the value, which meant ASPs were up 4.4% on the same time last year, and 3.9% on December 2008.
Semicon update: 2009's on track for cyclical recovery
Unsurprisingly, January's sales were not particularly strong, down 31.6 percent in value (34.5 percent in units) from the same time last year, says Malcolm Penn, CEO and founder of Future Horizons.
They were also down, on a weekly run-rate basis, 6.6 percent in value (10.1 percent in units) from December 2008. In both cases the unit declines were steeper than the value, which meant ASPs were UP 4.4 percent on the same time last year, and UP 3.9 percent on December 2008.
TSMC, UMC boost output at wafer fabs
AMD’s orders, which have been put on both TSMC and UMC, are said to amount to a total of 30,000 wafers: 4-5,000 in March; 8-9,000 in April; 10,000 for May and another 10,000 for June.
Bristol CEOs network with North-West Technology
If government were to pay the first two years’ costs of employing IET and IEEE qualified engineers in this country, the output of the UK electronics industry, and the value of the UK electronics industry in the eyes of venture capital investors, would both double overnight, according to Stan Boland, CEO of wireless start-up Icera Semiconductor.
Intel, TSMC collaborate on Atom
Intel and TSMC have signed a Memorandum Of Understanding under which they will collaborate on technology platform, IP infrastructure, and SoC solutions. Under the terms of the agreement, Intel will port its Atom processor cpu cores to the TSMC technology platform including processes, IP, libraries, and design flows.
The PC industry will see a decline of nearly 12% in 2009, analysts predict.
It would be only the second period of negative growth in the industry, after a slump of 3.2% in 2002.
The news follows an announcement that the semiconductor industry saw a 35% drop in sales of computer chips between 2008 and 2009……………………………………………………………
However, the industry was already scaling back and through "purely good luck" may have not have been caught off-guard as badly as other industries, said Malcolm Penn, chief executive of semiconductor industry analysts Future Horizons.
India needs to rethink its semiconductor strategy?
LONDON, UK: At the Future Horizons' International Forecast Seminar (IFS) in London, Malcolm Penn, CEO and founder, said that the global semiconductor market will fall by 28 percent in value and by 26 percent in unit shipments in 2009 after the unprecedented collapse of Q4 2008.
That set me thinking: is the global semiconductor industry's situation really so bad? And, what of the Indian semiconductor industry? Does it need to re-look at its semiconductor policy as well? To get answers to these questions and more, I went straight to Malcolm Penn. Excerpts from an interview:
CIOL: Isn't a 28 percent drop too high? Or, is the industry situation really that bad?
Global semiconductor industry could well see revival in 2010?
"Let's start from the very beginning! A very good place to start!!"
Hope you all remember this lovely song sung by Julie Andrews in The Sound of Music!! So, what's the connection?
Right! Last week, I blogged about how the global semiconductor industry is likely to drop by 28 percent in 2009, while the Indian industry should grow by 13.4 percent during the same period, and that, we should not get carried away by these statistics!
A moment to ponder: isn't this drop of 28 percent too high for the global semicon industry? Or, is the situation really that bad? So, let's start from the very beginning, and go straight to the source -- Malcolm Penn!
Consumer crunch hits Japan, Sony and Toshiba feel pain
Following the collapse of the digital consumer market in the third quarter of 2008, Japanese chip-makers Toshiba, Sony and NEC have reported depressed results for Q4 and gloomy outlooks for 2009. By contrast, Nintendo is perky on the back of its blockbuster Wii.
The Japanese semiconductor market is expected to decline 15% cent this year after the digital consumer market fell off a cliff in Q308, according to Future Horizons. The same collapse happened elsewhere in the world but in Japan, heavily dependent on consumer electronics, it caused the most hurt.
Chipmakers scrambling to cope as market could shrink by 30%
STMicro's CEO added to the chip market's gloom by predicting a massive decline of 30 percent next year. He's not actually alone in that dismal assessment, and regardless of how his prediction pans out we'll look back on 2008 as the year that the chip industry underwent a shift in how it used Moore's Law that's every bit as big as the multicore revolution.
Future Horizons Expects Semiconductor Market to Decline by 28%
The global semiconductor market will fall by 28% in value and by 26% in unit shipments in 2009 after the unprecedented collapse of Q4 2008, according to Malcolm Penn, CEO and founder of Future Horizons. Penn was speaking at Future Horizons’ International Forecast Seminar in London yesterday. Penn’s prediction is for an unprecedented fall in the industry, although he also predicts a recovery in 2010 with the resumption of growth in Q3 2009. “Just how much of the growth we experienced from 2004 to 2007 was smoke and mirrors?” asks Penn. “The current situation has been fuelled by greed and short term business goals, and now consumer confidence is low with no one sure when this will all end.”
Global semi to dip by 28pc in 2009; Indian semi to grow at 13.4pc by 2010! Don't get carried away!!
Contrasting numbers, isn't it!
Let's start! Yesterday, Malcolm Penn, CEO and founder of Future Horizons, said at the International Forecast Seminar (IFS) in London that the global semiconductor market will fall by 28 percent in value and by 26 percent in unit shipments in 2009 after the unprecedented collapse of Q4 2008.
Penn has added that Q2 2009 will be the bottom of the dip, with a 15 percent increase forecast for 2010 and 28 percent in 2011.
Crikey Moses. The chip market fell 22.5 per cent in Q4, could fall another 20 per cent in Q1, and may be 28 per cent down in 2009, according to Future Horizons at the company's International Forecast Seminar 2009 (IFS2009) in London yesterday.
Future Horizons has the gloomiest forecast of all the sector analysts. Merrill Lynch forecasts 24 per cent decline and Goldman Sachs a mere 15 per cent. ST's CEO Carlo Bozotti says the market could decline 25 per cent.
This year, the world semiconductor market will fall by 28% in value and by 26% in unit shipments, according to Future Horizons at the company’s International Forecast Seminar 2009 (IFS2009) in London this morning.
The company’s forecast is by far the gloomiest of all the major analysts. Merrill Lynch’s 24% cent decline forecast is the next gloomiest, with Citigroup, JP Morgan, Inside Chips, Broadpoint, AmTech and Gartner Dataquest coming along behind with forecasts of 20% decline, and with Goldman Sachs and Wachovia forecasting 15% decline.
The 22.5% fall in the market in Q408 will be followed by a 20% fall in Q109, said Future Horizons.
“The speed of collapse in Q4 was unprecedented”, said Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons.
LONDON — The global semiconductor market, currently in the grip of a supply-chain stall, will fall by 28 percent in 2009, according to Malcolm Penn, founder and principal analyst with market research firm Future Horizons Ltd. (Sevenoaks, England).
Although Penn has swung from being one of the most optimistic of semiconductor analysts to being one of the most pessimistic in terms of a percentage figure, his number still assumes the resumption of sequential growth in the second half of 2009 and Penn predicts a recovery in 2010. If the global economy enters a deflationary spiral or continues to decline for other reasons the semiconductor market could exhibit a double-dip and two years of declining sales, Penn said.
In any case Penn's 28 percent would be an unprecedented fall. It is being driven by the high degree to which the semiconductor industry had become dependent on the strongly discretionary consumer sector and the extreme nature of the global economic malaise Penn said. "The speed of collapse in Q4 was unprecedented. It simply stopped dead," he said.
Companies need to change their way of thinking and embrace new ideas in order to survive 2009, according to Malcolm Penn, founder and chief executive with market analysis firm Future Horizons. He offers eight resolutions which he thinks companies should adopt.
"There are tough times ahead, and we need to make some big new year's resolutions, and stick to them, if they are to come out of the recession strong," he said.
LONDON — In order to survive the coming year, companies need to change their way of thinking and embrace new ideas and concepts, according to Malcolm Penn, founder and chief executive with market analysis firm Future Horizons (Sevenoaks, England). He offers eight resolutions which he thinks companies should adopt.
Electronics World Feb 2009 Edition - Solve Someone's problem in a downturn, they will love you forever, do the same in a boom,chances are you will be one of a crowd and forgotton tomorrow.
"Just as people can’t help but compare the current global economic recession to the Great Depression, reviewing the semiconductor industry’s current downturn with respect to the dot-com bust of 2001 is inevitable. But Malcolm Penn, chairman and CEO of industry analyst Future Horizons (Kent, UK), contends that the inevitable chip market contraction in 2009 will be neither as deep nor as long-lasting as the
2001 downturn."
Chip market enters into its 11th industry recession, says Future Horizons
Despite the fact the first half of 2008 was stronger than many predicted, the relentless deterioration in the global financial markets has finally tipped the global economy into recession. Not surprisingly, it has taken the chip market with it says Malcolm Penn, CEO and chairman of industry analyst house Future Horizons.
Another 2001? No way - Future Horizons
Future Horizons, Europe's leading semiconductor analyst company, reckons that 2009 will see a two per cent contraction in market size, but no re-run of the disastrous downturn of 2001.
"September marked the start of the 11th chip industry slowdown", says Future Horizons, "we now expect Q408 to be down 6 per cent on Q308, making 2008's growth just 2.2 per cent on 2007 - the fourth consecutive year of single digit market value growth."
Fear and hope stalk the chip industry, suggest analysts
Chip industry analyst group Future Horizons is predicting that the semiconductor industry will see a 2 per cent decline next year but that there will be no re-run of the huge downturn of 2001.
According to Malcolm Penn, chairman and CEO of Future Horizons, the 2010-11 rebound could be much more pronounced than most people currently feel.
Feeling The Crunch?Design engineers looking for the perfect distribution deal are used to the headache of budgetary constraints and time management issues. With the additional pressure of the credit crunch, designers and distributors need to focus on solutions to counter this global economic slowdown.
Future Horizons' Malcolm Penn: This is not 2001
Conventional wisdom says "cut back in a recession." Malcolm Penn, chairman and CEO of Future Horizons, disagrees when it comes to the chip industry. Indeed, Future Horizons, a global semiconductor industry analysis company started in the 1990 recession and expanded during the 2001 bust, this week expanded again, launching its "Start Up Support" program Web site. Penn discussed with Electronic Business via e-mail the company's October report and how this financial-crisis-driven industry downturn differs from other industry downturns, what will cushion the industry's blow, why semiconductors are attractive to investors right now, and how Moore’s Law works in. What follows are excerpts of that conversation.
The Chip Industry Marches On
Future Horizons has revised its semiconductor forecast for the year to 4-5 per cent growth with four to six per cent growth for 2009.
"On the one hand at a stroke the world's financial ecosystem became dysfunctional yet on the other hand the chip industry continues to march on", says Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons in the company's October semiconductor industry report.
Future Horizons Offer Start Up Support
According to Future Horizons (Sevenoaks, England) starting a new business in the electronics industry is tough enough in itself, with professional research reports and industry experts' advice tipping even the wealthiest startup’s budget. Add to this the recent global economic downturn, and a near-term outlook is starting to look bleak said the company.
Feeling The Crunch?
The shadow of the credit crunch casting over UK component distribution has resulted in a sector that has become overly guarded. Expenditure and cash flow issues prevailing, market analyst Future Horizons suggests this caution is the product of pessimism.
"Doom and gloom in chip market?
According to Malcolm Penn, chairman and CEO, Future Horizons, July's results continued the first-half year trend of 'exceeding expectations', yet the mood in the chip market is all doom and gloom."
"Ever-bullish Malcolm Penn, founder and principal analyst with Future Horizons Ltd. (Sevenoaks, England) believes the market forces are at last moving into place to deliver a couple of years of booming growth for the semiconductor industry."
"Semiconductor industry analyst Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons (Sevenoaks, England), invoked the spirit of both Winston Churchill and King Canute in arguing in his June chip market report that even though the global economy is facing tough times, the semiconductor is holding its own."
"With market data recently released by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) showing that quarterly semiconductor sales growth reached 3.0% in the second quarter, Malcolm Penn, Chairman & CEO of Future Horizons reiterated that the semiconductor industry remains strong, despite a general gloom observed in the market."
"Despite things, according to Europe's leading semiconductor analysts, Future Horizons, capacity won't meet demand next year.
"It's the first time the semiconductor industry has cut back on capital investment at a time when capacity is at its tightest", says Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, "they're saying: 'I've got too little capacity so I'm stopping investing'. While utilisation rates are high, the capex rate is low."
http://www.newelectronics.co.uk/article/14946/Capacity-crunch-coming.aspx
"The semiconductor industry is set for a capacity shortage, says Malcolm Penn, Chief Executive of market watcher Future Horizons.
“There will be a capacity shortage in 2009,” he claimed, “there will be allocation and there will be price rises. People will have to fight for wafers.”
"Digging beneath the layers reveals a set of market fundamentals that are in remarkably strong form," Malcolm Penn, CEO and chairman of Future Horizons, observes in his June chip market report."
"Malcolm Penn, senior analyst at Future Horizons told the Examiner that speakers will include the director of R&D at ARM, Kriszlian Flaunter, as well as Acacia Capital Partners, people from Mentor Graphics, NEC, ST Micro and many other folk. We've been to a few Future Horizon events before. You learn all sorts of things about the semiconductor market."
"According to Malcolm Penn, Chairman and CEO, Future Horizons, June's WSTS results brought both good and bad news! The good news being that the recovery momentum strengthened, with Q2 sales up 3 percent on Q1."